How do Companies Prepare for the Future?
On this episode:
Conor and Alex chat with Mike Bechtel, Chief Futurist at Deloitte. Mike discusses what it means to be a futurist, how to analyze trends defining future operating systems and opportunities, and how companies can prepare workforces for changing technological environments. Get a glimpse into his thought process and learn about how you can prepare yourself for careers in large corporations.
Interview Recap:
5 Quick Bites
Reading list: Parable of the Sower by Octavia E. Butler, Machines Who Think by Pamela McCorduck
Skill or topic you’re interested in developing? Non-currency uses of crypto
How do you stay up to date with the latest developments in your industry? Slashdot, as well as info that isn’t related to what you do
Favorite CEO? Dan Helfrich of Deloitte. He’s inspiring!
What industry would you be interested in starting a company in? Upside down Wikipedia - questions can be asked and wikis can be created for those answers
What is a futurist?
Futurism isn’t prediction. Futurists use an understanding of history, technology, and current events to extrapolate projections. They work with clients to evaluate probabilities, helping them get to their preferred tomorrows a little earlier.
How are organizations currently planning for the future, and how do futurists fit in?
Traditional organizations have a VP of Strategy, who’s responsible for thinking bigger and avoiding unseen icebergs.
If an iPhone camera is an analogy for a strategy/vision, futurists bring in a telephoto lens and a wide angle lens. They can see further than strategists - 10 to 20 years vs. the traditional 2 years. They can also look into adjacent fields, not limited to competitors. As the famous saying goes, “It’s the businesses with no business being in your business that put you out of business.”
How do futurists predict trends and present them in a persuasive way to management?
Futurists like to keep things uncomplicated. There are 3 steps in prediction:
Trend lines. Futurists will work with clients to figure out the changes they’ve been experiencing inside their own organization as well as customer needs. These changes are bucketed into 3 types:
Linear: y = mx + b growth/decline from year to year.
Exponential: as the saying goes, oak trees grow from acorns. Exponential changes look small at first, but mapping them out over years presents their true growth.
Cyclical: mapping changes out over a long period of time always looks cyclical. Here, futurists “zoom out.”
Projection.
Presentation. Futurists keep it simple and filter these changes into specific domains such as education.
How do you convince management to accept the help of futurists?
As the saying goes, operations eats strategy for breakfast, which is to say that the urgent beats the important every day.
The beauty of futurism is that it doesn’t take your eyes off of today to admire the future - studying the future helps companies determine which risk-adjusted strategies to make today that are least likely to cause technical debt.
Technical Debt is the implied cost of additional rework caused by choosing an easy solution now instead of using a better approach that would take longer.
Futurists help today’s decision makers make decisions that are forwards-compatible with the future, so their successors won’t have to service technical debt.
Is there a blurring between corporate strategy and technology strategy?
Yes! One trend is strategic engineering - incorporating tech strategy inco corporate strategy. Tech companies are agile and fast. They don’t rely on scheduled meetings, but instead meet when issues arise.
A common pattern among corporations is when every time something new and transformative shows up, it doesn’t play well with existing processes. For example, AI has built amazing models that are not well connected to the rest of operations.
Another trend is the prevalence of data scientist, which is highly beneficial for companies looking to embrace tech.
Any advice for college kids who want to have a successful future career?
“Know thyself” - Socrates.
If you want to go into entrepreneurship and become a founder, you must develop the mentality of having nothing to lose.
Fun fact: Mike had the opportunity to co lead Deloitte’s annual Tech Trends publication!
Takeaway quote: “I recommend reading newsletters that are not only adjacent to, but unrelated to where you are at to empathize with value systems that aren’t your own.” (40:30)
To learn more about Mike and his work, visit https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/profiles/michael-bechtel.html.